SIRDARYO DARYOSI HAVZASIDA 2000–2024-YILLARDAGI GIDROIQLIMIY O‘ZGARISHLAR: HARORAT, EVAPOTRANSPIRATSIYA VA QURG‘OQCHILIK KO‘RSATKICHLARINING TREND TAHLILI
Abstract
Maqolada Sirdaryo daryosi havzasining 2000–2024-yillardagi yillik gidroiqlimiy qatorlari asosida havo harorati, yog‘in, potensial evapotranspiratsiya, iqlimiy suv balansi, qor ko‘rsatkichlari hamda SPI-12 va SPEI-12 qurg‘oqchilik indekslarining ko‘p yillik o‘zgarishi tahlil qilingan. Trendlar eng kichik kvadratlar usuli, Mann–Kendall mezoni va Sen qiyaligi, rejim o‘zgarishi esa Pettitt mezoni yordamida baholangan. O‘rtacha yillik harorat yiliga 0,0329 °C (p=0,003), potensial evapotranspiratsiya yiliga 1,20 mm (p=0,011) ga statistik ahamiyatli oshgani, ikkala qatorda ham 2013-yil atrofida strukturaviy siljish yuz bergani aniqlandi. Yog‘in, qor yog‘ini va iqlimiy suv balansida ahamiyatli trend qayd etilmagan, biroq ularning yillararo o‘zgaruvchanligi yuqori bo‘lgan. Natijalar havzada qurg‘oqchilik xavfi yog‘inning kamayishidan ko‘ra isish va atmosfera suv talabining ortishi bilan shakllanayotganini ko‘rsatadi.
Downloads
References
1. IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021. – 2391 p. DOI: 10.1017/9781009157896.
2. Barnett T.P., Adam J.C., Lettenmaier D.P. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions // Nature. – 2005. – Vol. 438, No. 7066. – P. 303–309. DOI: 10.1038/nature04141.
3. Sorg A., Bolch T., Stoffel M., Solomina O., Beniston M. Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan, Central Asia // Nature Climate Change. – 2012. – Vol. 2, No. 10. – P. 725–731. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1592.
4. Chen Y., Li W., Deng H., Fang G., Li Z. Changes in Central Asia’s water tower: past, present and future // Scientific Reports. – 2016. – Vol. 6. – Art. 35458. DOI: 10.1038/srep35458.
5. Li Z., Chen Y., Li Y. et al. Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia // Scientific Reports. – 2020. – Vol. 10. – Art. 3476. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60303-z.
6. Scientific-Information Center of ICWC. Water resources of Syr Darya River basin [Elektron resurs]. – Tashkent: SIC ICWC.
7. Sorg A., Mosello B., Shalpykova G., Allan A., Hill Clarvis M., Stoffel M. Coping with changing water resources: the case of the Syr Darya River Basin in Central Asia // Environmental Science & Policy. – 2014. – Vol. 43. – P. 68–77. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.11.003.
8. Bissenbayeva S., Abuduwaili J., Saparova A., Ahmed T. Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities // Journal of Arid Land. – 2021. – Vol. 13, No. 1. – P. 56–70. DOI: 10.1007/s40333-021-0050-0.
9. Zou S., Abuduwaili J., Duan W., De Maeyer P., Van de Voorde T. Human and natural impacts on the water resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia // Sustainability. – 2019. – Vol. 11, No. 11. – Art. 3084. DOI: 10.3390/su11113084.
10. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2020-yil 10-iyuldagi PF–6024-son “O‘zbekiston Respublikasi suv xo‘jaligini rivojlantirishning 2020–2030-yillarga mo‘ljallangan konsepsiyasini tasdiqlash to‘g‘risida”gi Farmoni.
11. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2023-yil 11-sentabrdagi PF–158-son “O‘zbekiston–2030” strategiyasi to‘g‘risida”gi Farmoni.
12. Muñoz-Sabater J., Dutra E., Agustí-Panareda A. et al. ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications // Earth System Science Data. – 2021. – Vol. 13, No. 9. – P. 4349–4383. DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021.
13. Harris I., Osborn T.J., Jones P., Lister D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset // Scientific Data. – 2020. – Vol. 7. – Art. 109. DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3.
14. Allen R.G., Pereira L.S., Raes D., Smith M. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. – Rome: FAO, 1998. – 300 p.
15. McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales // Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. – Boston: AMS, 1993. – P. 179–184.
16. Vicente-Serrano S.M., Beguería S., López-Moreno J.I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index // Journal of Climate. – 2010. – Vol. 23, No. 7. – P. 1696–1718. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
17. Mann H.B. Nonparametric tests against trend // Econometrica. – 1945. – Vol. 13, No. 3. – P. 245–259. DOI: 10.2307/1907187.
18. Kendall M.G. Rank correlation methods. 4th ed. – London: Charles Griffin, 1975.
19. Sen P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau // Journal of the American Statistical Association. – 1968. – Vol. 63, No. 324. – P. 1379–1389. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934.
20. Hamed K.H., Rao A.R. A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data // Journal of Hydrology. – 1998. – Vol. 204, No. 1–4. – P. 182–196. DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X.
21. Pettitt A.N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem // Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics). – 1979. – Vol. 28, No. 2. – P. 126–135. DOI: 10.2307/2346729.
